Social Intelligence Reveals How Fans Optimism Changes Throughout Tournament
The World Cup in Brazil is underway! There are 64 games, in 12 venues, over 32 days of the tournament. Billions of people will be watching, and the sponsorship and promotional activity around the event will reach everyone.
The people who will watch the games, buy the products, and truly live every moment of the tournament will surely talk about it online, through blogs, forums, and through their social media accounts. And it won’t all be cheering on their team, repeating the hype, discussing the results and performances, or engaging in ‘friendly’ international rivalry. No, many people will be expressing their opinions and predictions. Which team they think will win the World Cup. And, on the other hand, people will speculate online about which team they think has no chance of achieving glory.
So, Crimson Hexagon thought that a little harmless competition may be a good idea: to see which of the main ‘favourites’ to win the competition is the most optimistic.
We picked seven of the main ‘favourites’ for the tournament: holders Spain, hosts Brazil, Italy, Argentina, Germany, France, and England. Using ForSight, we analysed thousands of social media posts in many languages globally. We called upon our friends across the Crimson Hexagon family, including representatives of Spanish agency 355 Berry Street and our Italian partners We Like CRM, to help put the language-agnostic tool through its paces.
Starting with the hosts, Brazil. Of over 25,000 posts across various online and social media sites that make predictions for the Selecao, 68% think they will win the tournament. This is a definite show of confidence in a team that has the weight of expectation upon it as the home nation.
Brazil’s neighbours, and deadly rivals, Argentina, are less positive, with a roughly even split of expectation (49% believe Messi, Aguero and co will win).
Now, what about England? Despite what the British media have claimed is ‘low expectations’ this time around, our study finds that over 80% think England will win the World Cup. We should note that these predictions were made before England fell to Italy in their first game of the tournament.
Of the other European teams, Italy and Germany are the most pessimistic, each with only just over 40% of social media posts believing they will win the cup (41% for the Azzurri and 43% for the Deutsche Mannschaft). Again before the first matches were played, Spain, as holders and one of the experts’ favourites for the tournament, have confident fans, with 83% optimism for their chances. With the greatest optimism levels of all seven countries, however, is France. A huge 91% of online comments predict a French World Cup win. Perhaps boosted by a seemingly easy first round group, it remains to be seen how Les Bleus live up to this confidence.
The State of Play:
The ‘winners’: France!
Of course, we aim to look for changes in each country’s hopes as the tournament progresses, and each game is played. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for updates: let’s see whose optimism was misguided, and which fans should have been more confident!